Those with long memories, or avid readers of Wikipedia, will know that even TrickyDicky did some good things. If you or your clients have any upcoming transfers that you want me to keep you updated with exchange rates for, please feel free to get in touch.No, not the fact he'll possibly lose office next election, but positives. With the uncertainty growing both this side of the Atlantic and State side, it looks like it’s going to be the political headlines that rule the roost in regards to movement of the markets over the coming months again, as opposed to any heavy movements from economic figures.Īll in all, as with Brexit, the initial reaction in response to last night’s event was somewhat of an anti-climax, but we’re sure to see more volatility over the coming weeks as things unfold, with not too much more movement across the board expected this week on the back of the economic data that’s yet to be released. Getting the route of the vote underway could indeed turn out to be a very messy and time-consuming parliamentary battle which could almost definitely, in my opinion, put the nail in the coffin of her career before it’s even properly started. May, I imagine will definitely hold out for a Supreme court hearing towards the end of January hoping for the previous ruling to be overruled, rather than prompting the vote in parliament to trigger the article. The high court ruling of the article 50 situation stating that a vote needs to be passed in the house of commons before May can trigger the article, makes it a lot less likely that the article will be triggered before March. With the US so heavily involved in foreign policy globally, all eyes are going to be on the States in the couple of months after his inauguration, which hopefully take the pressure off Sterling and the UK if the focus is still heavily on Theresa May and the growing article 50 pressure that’s been manifesting in Downing street over the past couple of weeks. The question that needs to be asked now is whether Trump will reign in his outlandishness or if he’ll start a foreign affairs rampage that could have disastrous effects both domestically and internationally. We should get a hint on whether this is the case across the back end of the week with a few Fed members scheduled to speak over the next few days. On the back of the result, it’s looking a lot less likely that the Fed will move interest rates again by the end of the year for fear of causing more instability that many think will now come in the form or a bright gold presidential hair piece. The almost instant correction of rates is similarly like some are saying to Brexit, with a lot of analysts believing the knock-on effect of Trump gaining power will be a ‘slow burner’ rather than being a dramatic initial slump that many thought it would be. To a lot of people’s surprise, despite the initial capital flight into other currencies and safe heaven commodities like gold, within a couple of hours the Dollar seemed to stabilise again, not too shy from yesterday’s prices of trading against a lot of major currency pairs such as euro and sterling, with the GBPvUSD rate currently levelling out again around the 1.24 mark and EURvUSD back down to 1.1050. ![]() ![]() Immediately after the result had been made apparent, USD hit a very quick low across the board of other currencies globally, with just a few exceptions such as Mexican Peso, which there was no surprise to, and South African Rand also struggled a little bit initially before gaining back some strength.Ī basket full of other currencies though gained as much as a couple of percent against the Dollar with the Japanese Yen becoming the main go to currency in the initial jerk reaction of the markets. I think it’s fair to say now that polls leading up to any type of political or electorate vote should be taken with a pinch of salt, or maybe even disregarded from now on in. ![]() It all seemed very reminiscent of the last UK election, the Scottish referendum and yes of course. The world is undoubtedly now a different place, whether we like it or not!Īs I’ve been warning people since the last presidential debate, Trump shouldn’t have been written off… especially considering the polls had Clinton well ahead moving into last night’s final leg of the campaign. I’d like to think everyone is more than aware of last night’s presidential election result by now.
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